Konvolut Regression
Josef
Steindl
AC14446191
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8
Now Aq* = A Iq* from (5)
so that we have
R
1 + R
I q*
( 10 )
as an expression for the net product in terms of standard commodity•
Since the unit of standard commodity has been linked to the amount of
direct labour used in the economy, we can also define the net product in
terms of labour as
1 + R
To get a measure in terms of money value we have to introduce a price
vector. We are, in principle, free to choose any price system we want,
the essential properties of the standard commodity being preserved in
whatever terms of money we express it.
For example, we may choose the prices corresponding to the maximum rate
of profit p* (the left hand eigen vector of A). We obtain the net
product in terms of p* prices, which, following Sraffa, we equate to
unity making it thereby the unit of the pricing system:1)
p*1 (I - A ) q*
(12 )
It will be noted that the non-basics do not explicitly occur in this
product, because A refers only to basics. The non-basics are taken
account of by the equation (1a) which allocates the total labour of the
original system (which contains the non-basics) to the basics only. That
3
this line of research. Moreover, it would rather seem to
carry coals to Newcastle if one entered a field in which so
many people have tried their ingenuity. The chances of
finding still another variant of the same ideas can only
get smaller and smaller.
Let me pass now to another type of contribution.
Guger and Walterskirchen have dealt directly withthe post-war
history of employment. They have, first of all,stressed the
importance of monetary policy, both in Keynes's thinking
and in the troubles of our times. ( As to the latter I might
mention that the abondonment of cheap money policy practised
under the influence of Keynes during the war came already
very early , around 195o, in Britain and in U.S., helped by
the experience of inflation ).
It is not irrelevant to theoretical discussions on interest
that that they depend much on institutions which are different
according to place and time. In the time after the General
Theory the prevailing view in England was that the influence
of interest on investment was very small in general. This
view was supported by interviews with business men
( Hitch and Hall in Oxford ). The economists view on the
insubstantial role of interest in investment decisions
( excepting housing and power stations ) was based on the
argument that only long term interest was relevant for
fixed investment, and this varied only within narrow limits
over a short period. This does not contradict Keynes's hopes
that over a longer period the rate might be altered substantially,
The situation has never been quite the same on the continent
always been
where industrial investment has/financed to a large extent
by bank credits with practically variable interest.
In our time the changes in the long term interest are substantial
and take effect more quickly than formerly.
What m
6
Even partial information in this field, bringing us a few
steps further, would be, howeber, exceedingly valuable
and worth a lot of trouble.
Something might now be said on the three post-war periods
which Keynes anticipated. The second period faded out
gradually already in the course of the 60s. In its earlier
part it was strongly influenced by the catching up process
in Europe. The continent of Europe had been cut off from
American technological development for many years; a reserve
of know how had thus accumulated which became available after
the war, aided also by Marshall plan and technical assistence;
it had a strong influence onthe scale of investment and growht
of productivity on the continent.Drawing on available know
how is infinitely more easy than creating new one and
the effects on investment are strong. We can not say exactly
when these effects were exhausted, but their gradual
disappearance must have contributed to the ending of the
second period. The flagging of the animal spirits was
a motive for increasing tax allowances, illustrated by the
decrease in profit taxes in various countreis such as
Britain and the U.S.
The basic reason for the ending of period two, as Keynes said,
was the accumulation of capacity and decline of utilisation,
helped perhaps also by the accumulation of excess depreciation
although this was counteracted by inflation.
empirical
These considerations suggest a fairly wide field of /study
/
on investment, depreciation, capital stock, capacity and
utilisation. In an interesting study of the ECE (Geneva ) *
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7
the available data on utilisation were used,by means of the
production index, to calculate the implicit indes of capacity.
The results were then compared with the data on gross capital
stock. This showed for some countries such as the U.S.
a lesser growth of capacity which was interpreted as
a shortening of the life-time of equipment. This attempt
to make explicit the implications of a very shaky data
basis throws some light on our ignorance in this field.
We know much less about capital eqqipment than demographers
know about people. We have no statistics at all about
scrapping (death) and our ideas about the length of life
are rather conventional. The assumption of a constant length
of life underlies all statistics of the capitla stock.
The concepts of capacity and utilisation as well as the
empirical data need considerable study. This would also
give opportunity for interdisciplinary work ( cooperation
with engineers to obtain technical expertise ).
The importance of the capacity concept has also been suggested
by Roncaglia when he spoke of the distinction between
claasical and Keynesian unemployment. Classically unemployed
are those who can not be employed for lack of capital -
for what I would call employment capacity in contrast to
output capacity which is the usual meaning of "capacity".
Roncaglia suggested that classical enemployment is
being created by the policy of restricting demand because it
leads to a deficiency of investment. ( Perhaps the neglecht
of investment in "human capital" is even more grave ).
But a lack of capacity may arise also from
demographic reasons: At the end of the second period there
was a substantial increase in the growht rate of the labour
force in the U.S. The reasons were higher birth and
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9
means that a hypothetical shift of labour from the non-basics to the
basics is assumed, and the net product is then measured in terms of the
latter, (One might say that in this form "labour value" still plays a
role!)
According to the second method of measuring the net product we make use
of the maximum profit rate and of the prices p* based thereupon. The
idea must clearly be that we ascertain the net product in physical
terms, and price each item of it with the maximum profit prices p*. We
obtain then a system of prices and we have only to find weights for the
commodities to define the net product.
It will be natural to try and proceed in a manner analogous or symmetric
to the first method above.
Analogy is found in the following: We have to introduce quantities for
the various industries. We are in principle free to choose these weights
q as we please because the resulting measure of the net product will
always be invariant with respect to distribution.
But we have now to choose between two different ways of doing it. We may
confine ourselves to the basics, in perfect symmetry to the former
method. In this case we shall apply the weights q* obtained by the
former method, because these weights together with the condition
lfq*= 1 will be a guarantee that the equivalent of the resources
absorbed by the non-basics is absorbed by the basics. It follows
that the solution of the problem i.e. the expression for the net product
= 1 .
p*! ( I - A ) q*
( 12 )
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10
will be exactly the same as by the former method.
The alternative way is to take into account the non-basics explicitly,
which we can do very well in this case since their prices can be
determined by means of the prices of basic goods. We are here quite
naturally led to apply the actual quantities of the original system
because it is they, non-basics and basics together, which form the
equivalent of the standard weights q* of basic goods (which result from
shifting the resources of the non-basic sector into the basic sector).
We shall therefore have for the net product
P
# »
( 13 )
where A1 is the matrix of coefficients of the non-basics (we neglect the
unimportant A2 here) and q is the vector of the actual quantities of the
original system.
The net product of the non-basics p# } q
must be regarded as the equivalent of the part of the standard product
which owes its existence merely to the (hypothetical) shift of labour
from the non-basic to the basic sector: For this equivalence was used to
justify the calculation of the standard product in the first place.
From this follows that the definition of the net product according to
(13) is equivalent to that according to (12). We are then able to
measure the net product in terms of standard commodity by pricing its
components on the basis of the maximum profit rate, using the quantities
in which they are actually produced in the original system.
The method working with maximum profit prices makes it possible to
evaluate not only the net product but also any part of it in terms of a
share in the net product. Thus, if we evaluate the luxury goods at
<ZAsv>el^u~. &£n '$^K< $^
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5
complain that German banks are not able or not willing to
finance innovation. It is thus a question not only of how
much but also of where and how. We also hear of funds of
large industrial concerns held in form of financial investments
in preference to real investment, of the increasing role of
financial and real estate business in the activities and
gainsof large industrial concerns. It would evidently be of
great interest to go into the question how the practice,
the attitudes and aims of industrial concerns have developped
inthe course of the post-war period. How much investment
was induced by a given flow of retained profits ( taking into
account a plausible lag ) in the 50s and 60s, and how
much later, in the 7os and 80s? As a second priority a study
of household saving is also suggested by the paper; part of
this saving is institutional. Though it makes no difference
whether the household invests directly in bonds or whethe
this is done for him by pension funds etc, but there may
be effects on the rate of saving. In fact, the low saving
ratio of recent years in U.S. has been explained by the
high interest rate which made lower payments into pension
funds sufficient to secure given future pension rights.
Consumptioncredits and house building are further elements
influencing the household saving.
The subjuct of saving is obviously closely connected with
income distribution which is therefore very relevant for
effective demand and employment. To-day the personal distribution
of income is no less perhaps even more important than the
functional distribution between wages, profits etc.
But it is also even more difficult to get information on it
in fact, there are yawning gaps in our information.
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