Trend and Cycle

Steindl, Josef

Bibliographic data

Works

Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Trend and Cycle

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Typoskript, Konvolut aus zwei Versionen von "Trend and Cycle", teilweise identisch, nummeriert, handschriftliche Anmerkungen und Notizen, 10 Blätter und 9 Blätter

Year of publication:: 1988

Source material date:: [vermutlich um/vor 1988]

Language:: English

Description:: Trend, cycle, cycle problems, long run changes, utilisation, measurement of technical progress, technology and economic structure, excess capacity in the long run, Kalecki.

Note:: Versionen einer Reihe von Entwürfen zu "Trend and Cycle". Die letzte Version wurde post mortem veröffentlicht und vermutlich 1988 verfasst. - Beilage (63 Seiten): Industrial Output Section (Division of Research and Statistics): Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing, Mining, and Utlities and Industrial Materials January 1967-December 1984 with supplementary manufacturing data, January 1948-December 1966. Revised July 1985, Washington D.C.

Related work:: Steindl, Josef: Trend and Cycle. In: Mott, Tracy und Shapiro, Nina (Hrsg.): Rethinking Capitalist Development. Essays on the Economics of Josef Steindl. New York: Routledge 2004, S. 164-173

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: E11 [General Aggregative Models: Marxian, Sraffian, Kaleckian] E32 [Business Fluctuations, Cycles] E37 [Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications]

Shelfmark:: S/M.18.1

Access:: Free access

7 short recession then this will strengthen the growth tendencies via the integral term mentioned above. What is to be avoided is an image of the cycle in which there is fluctuation round a pre-determined trend; I am myself guilty of having used the, simile of a ”badly functioning controller” which after a time always returns to a given long term path. There is a negative feedback (characteristic of the controller) but the long term path to which it pushes the system is itself influenced and shaped by the course of the trade cycle! Now on the face of it it would seem th"at a linear equation, since its independent solutions are combined by superposition to give the resulting time series, could not represent the interdependence of trend and cycle. In actual fact,however, the solution depends on initial conditions,and, the process being frequently interrupted by exogenous disturbances,the initial conditions change (changing phase,amplitude and trend ). An ex post statistical analysis of^ the time series will not easily reveal the trend and the cycle wj^lch constitute the theoretical solution of the equation, even yi we do not allow for possible changes in the parameters in the^course of time. We turn now to the question what the "long term memory” can mean in the concrete. There are in principle two possibi1ities:It can involve a positive feedback,and then it will tend to perpetuate an existing trend; or it can involve a negative feedback,and then it will lead to a long wave and not a trend. J

Works

Cite and reuse

Works

Image

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation