Trend - Problems

Steindl, Josef; Bhaduri, Amit

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Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Trend - Problems

Author:: Steindl, Josef Bhaduri, Amit

Scope:: Konvolut aus Typoskript "Trend - Problems", mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 6 Seiten sowie einer Kopie dieses Typoskripts mit einem Kommentar von Amit Bhaduri auf Seite 1, Konvolut insgesamt 12 Seiten

Year of publication:: ohne Datum

Language:: English

Note:: Entstehungszeitraum vermutlich vor 1988. - Unveröffentlichtes Typoskript.

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: E11 [General Aggregative Models: Marxian, Sraffian, Kaleckian] E32 [Business Fluctuations, Cycles] E37 [Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications]

Shelfmark:: S/M.18.2

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.48671/nls.js.AC14446051

Trend - Problems 1.Kalecki. Kalecki's remarks on the trend are rather sketchy as compared with his elaborate theory of the cycle. In his first version of the trade cycle he excluded the trend altogether by the assumption of a "pure cycle" which revolves round a constant replacement demand ( replacement and depreciation are assumed to be equal ). In the sense of a long term movement there is a trend also in this version - it is the constant replacement demand which is the feature of a stationary economy. The question which puzzles the reader is: What forces the investment to come down again to where it started from? We can hardly assume that the investors the^mselves aim at the stationary state, because that results only as an average and because the stationarity is all against the experience fo capitalist attitudes. The explicit treatment of the trend in later versions of K's theory combines two statements: a) A positive trend will only be generated by a continuing exogenous influence^that is, if we exclude the influence of public spending and of export surplusses, by continuing technological change (in a fairly wide sense -organisation etc) which keeps promising extra profits to the innovator. b) the exogenous influence is combined with endogenous elements and it is the two in their mutual and combined interaction which produces the trend.Kalecki speaks of a "semi-autonomous trend". The endogenous element corresponds to a long term memoryjthat is ( to the evol ution of the economy in the past ( the past extend^* farther back then just one or two years - perhaps even over the length of a whole trade cycle). These indications constitute a research program, but very little work if any has been done on it yet by anybody.

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