Trend and Cycle

Steindl, Josef

Bibliographic data

Works

Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Trend and Cycle

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Konvolut aus 4 maschinenschriftlichen Seiten mit handschrifltichen Anmerkungen sowie 5 handschriftlichen Seiten

Year of publication:: 1988

Source material date:: [vermutlich um/vor 1988]

Language:: English

Note:: Version einer Reihe von Entwürfen (die letzte Version von "Trend and Cycle" geschrieben vermutlich 1988, wurde post mortem veröffentlicht).

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: E11 [General Aggregative Models: Marxian, Sraffian, Kaleckian] E32 [Business Fluctuations, Cycles] E37 [Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications]

Shelfmark:: S/M.34.4

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.48671/nls.js.AC14446333

Trend and Cycle “■‘ L ^ - x # T-he concept^oif frend and cycle v arise in the statistical - - - — - ' ^ <W analysis of time-series.They are separated ex post. Is there an economic meaning in these concepts which relates them to economic behaviour? Some such meaning is certainly presupposed in the theories of several authors Kalecki's pure business cycle, Harrods analysis of long term growht and cycle. The underlying economic idea seems to be this: The trend is a slow movement, non-reversible, the corresponding behaviour is based on long run perspectives ("long run expectations") and perhaps also on long run memory. The cycle is a relatively quick movement, reversible, based on short run memory ( current or rather recent experience relating to profits etc ) and, it seems implied, short run perspectives. ( Short run is of course ntmeant in the Marshallian sense, but in the sense in which it is used in the discussion of the "^uglar cycle")', iwh N-ew -if these intuitive interpretations are accepted it becomes rather puzzling that many aufors from Aftalion to FRisch and Kalecki have regarded the trade cycle as essentially produced by fluctuations in fixed capital kst ~ investment. £n -faot_, we are inclined, with Keynes, to think of fixed investment as bs.sed on long run perspective, l and not merely on the spur of the current boom. And it looies- ail—irrational^, -if- - r§— is base^ on short run memory, i.e. on the current market data. One could imagine a variety of possible cnnclusions from

Works

Cite and reuse

Works

Image

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation