Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 2)

Steindl, Josef

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Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 2)

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Typoskript, 14 Blätter, mit handschriftlichen Anmerkungen und Anstreichungen

Year of publication:: 1974

Source material date:: [vermutlich um 1974]

Language:: English

Note:: Unveröffentlichtes Typoskript.

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: O11 [Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development]

Shelfmark:: S/M.77.1

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.48671/nls.js.AC14446392

6 This case of an overstrained growth was perhaps realised in the early 1950'ies in several countries where labour was rather scarce and investment large, and utilization of capacity very high. It did not lead to any very serious demand inflation, probably because the influence of the bottlenecks on the investment activity by itself served to restrain the rate of growth. It will be observed that in the above the point of departure was a given rate of growth. How can this be motivated? We can regard this rate of growth as exogenously determined,produced by the stream of inno vations, which results from the new technological capabilities and from the economic conditions of the preceding long period i.e. over the time of the last trade cycle. This given rate of growth is then being modified by the influence of the degree of utilization (and the profit rate) on investment. In this way an interaction between the development of technology and the economic mechanism is introduced. This leads us naturally to the subject of long waves; into this in the course of time new ideas have been introduced which make it look more serious than it did originally. In the view of Christopher Freeman the two effects of innovations: Creation of additional investment and subsequent displacement of labour are

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