Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 2)

Steindl, Josef

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Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 2)

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Typoskript, 14 Blätter, mit handschriftlichen Anmerkungen und Anstreichungen

Year of publication:: 1974

Source material date:: [vermutlich um 1974]

Language:: English

Description:: My book on maturity and stagnation was concerned with a particular period of history (ending in 1939) and a particular country - the U.S., which was chosen, in part because at the time it approximated reasonably well to a closed system with negligibly small taxation and budget. The question arises how far these ideas are relevant for other countries and for more recent periods. The questions, this much is sure, become then rather more complicated. (Auszug, S.1)

Subject:: Industriestaaten Wirtschaftswachtsum Wirtschaftsentwicklung Stagnation

Note:: Unveröffentlichtes Typoskript.

Related work:: Steindl, Josef: Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism. Oxford: Blackwell, 1952

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: O11 [Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development]

Shelfmark:: S/M.77.1

Access:: Free access

7 separated by a long drawn out process, starting with a long boom phase dominated by product innovations (high demand) and a subsequent recession and depression phase, dominated by process innovations and displacement of labour (demand falling). It might be mentioned that the two phases can also be separated in space: Countries which import the innovation might merely experience the displacement effect. The process seems, on the face of it, to coincide with the creation and decline of industries which are created by major product innovations (railway, motor car) and loose more and more employment capacity by large scale economies and learning - by "rationalisation" - later declining also in output when they are superseded by other developments. What does not seem to be quite answered in this long wave picture is the question why the product innovations should be bunched (clustered) or why it should last a certain fairly long time until a new major product innovation emerges. Are the resources (capital, credit) all absorbed by one big thing, so that interest in any thing else, even imaginative speculation in other possibilities, is excluded ?

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