Trend and Cycle

Steindl, Josef

Bibliographic data

Works

Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Trend and Cycle

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Typoskript, Konvolut aus zwei Versionen von "Trend and Cycle", teilweise identisch, nummeriert, handschriftliche Anmerkungen und Notizen, 10 Blätter und 9 Blätter

Year of publication:: 1988

Source material date:: [vermutlich um/vor 1988]

Language:: English

Description:: Trend, cycle, cycle problems, long run changes, utilisation, measurement of technical progress, technology and economic structure, excess capacity in the long run, Kalecki.

Note:: Versionen einer Reihe von Entwürfen zu "Trend and Cycle". Die letzte Version wurde post mortem veröffentlicht und vermutlich 1988 verfasst. - Beilage (63 Seiten): Industrial Output Section (Division of Research and Statistics): Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing, Mining, and Utlities and Industrial Materials January 1967-December 1984 with supplementary manufacturing data, January 1948-December 1966. Revised July 1985, Washington D.C.

Related work:: Steindl, Josef: Trend and Cycle. In: Mott, Tracy und Shapiro, Nina (Hrsg.): Rethinking Capitalist Development. Essays on the Economics of Josef Steindl. New York: Routledge 2004, S. 164-173

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: E11 [General Aggregative Models: Marxian, Sraffian, Kaleckian] E32 [Business Fluctuations, Cycles] E37 [Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications]

Shelfmark:: S/M.18.1

Access:: Free access

3 x are nearly the same as the old estimates, the growth rate of 2.9 percent for the period since 1979 is about 0.5 percentage point higher than was previously es timated. The downward revision of utilization is centered in durable manufacturing. The 1967-84 average utiliza tion rate for durable manufacturing is 1.3 percentage points below the rate shown previously and the De cember 1984 rate for this group is down 2.7 percentage points. Within durable manufacturing, utilization rates were found to be substantially lower in December 1984 for producers of motor vehicles and parts and machin ery, especially electrical machinery. The utilization rate for the latter series was revised downward nearly 11 percentage points in December 1984. Capacity growth in this industry, which includes the fast growing semi conductor and communications equipment industries, had been substantially underestimated for the 1981-84 period. Within manufacturing, the downward revisions of the operating rates for motor vehicles and machinery were accompanied by smaller downward revisions in the December 1984 rates for plants producing rubber and plastics products, paper and products, and textile mill products. The downward revisions of those series were offset to a considerable extent by upward revi sions of other series. In December 1984, the rates for producers of both chemicals and products and petrole um products were revised upward more than 5 percent age points. Overall the revisions reduced the dispersion of rates among industries. Rates that were high in 1984 have been revised downward, and some that were relatively low have been revised upward. Outside manufacturing, the utilization rate for min ing has been revised upward substantially. In part, this reflects the larger weight given crude oil extraction (primarily pumping, rather than drilling) with the in troduction of 1977 weights. Also, the mining series have been reconstructed for the whole period begin ning in 1967. In contrast to mining, the rates for utili ties have been revised only slightly. The utilization rate for industrial materials was re vised upward by 0.9 percentage point in December 1984 to 81.3 percent in large part because of the up ward revisions in mining and chemical materials. The rate for materials in late 1984 was very close to the to tal industry rate, and remained below its 1967-84 aver age (chart 2). Capacity utilization, output, and capacity data for the years 1967-84 are included in the tables contained in this supplement. Also, rebased manufacturing data for the 1948-66 period are included even though utili zation rates have not been revised for the period be fore 1967. Copies of the statistical release and this supplement are available* from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. The basic methods used in this revision are described in a booklet, Federal Re serve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization (Board of Governors, February 1978). More up-to-date information may be found in an article “Revised Fed eral Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utili zation,” by Richard D. Raddock scheduled to appear in the Federal Reserve Bulletin this fall. 2. Capacity utilization rates—revised and previous 1967 1970 1975 1980 1984 Percent

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