Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 1)

Steindl, Josef

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Document type:: Works

Collection:: Josef Steindl Collection

Title:: Stagnation theory in the light of recent history. (Fassung 1)

Author:: Steindl, Josef

Scope:: Typoskript, 14 Blätter, kopiertes Exemplar mit handschriftlichen Anmerkungen

Year of publication:: 1974

Source material date:: [vermutlich um 1974]

Language:: English

Description:: How far are the ideas from "Maturity and Stagnation" relevant for other countries and for more recent periods.

Subject:: Industriestaaten Wirtschaftswachtsum Wirtschaftsentwicklung Stagnation

Related work:: Steindl, Josef: Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism. Oxford: Blackwell, 1952

Topic:: Growth,cycle and stagnation

JEL Classification:: O11 [Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development]

Shelfmark:: S/M.45.3

Access:: Free access

8 It might be possible to combine this theory with my own ideas. Old industries tend to become oligopolies (not always, though - textiles!) they will then invest less being afraid of excess capacity from which they suffer, and they will charge high mark-ups, in this way draining off effective demand. The important point is that this pressure on demand will affect the other industries, too, and perhaps even more so, so that there is a discouragement of investment all round - including 1) also the realisation of new technical possibilities. Another element which possibly plays a role in the "long wave" is the excess of depreciation over replacement, which occurs whenever capital accumulation has been large in the past, say, twenty years, if that period is taken to be the life time of equipment. The excess arises in so far as depreciation is based on present capital stock and is therefore larger than the amount of capital 1) Although the conditions in this case are rather special the oil cartel might be taken as an example of such a mark-up raising industry, and it is fairly clear that the effects on effective demand (important at any rate in the second oil shock) have hit the rest of the industry and discouraged thereby the emergence or application of investments in new technologies e.g. new products.

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