The sudden contact between two separate worlds

Steindl, Josef

Bibliografische Daten

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Dokumentenart:: Werk

Sammlung:: Nachlass Josef Steindl

Titel:: The sudden contact between two separate worlds: Draft

Autor/in:: Steindl, Josef

Art/Umfang:: Typoskript, 2 Blätter, 3 Seiten

Erscheinungsjahr:: 1990

Schlagwort:: Osteuropa Wirtschaftsreform Wirtschaftssystem Transformation Ost-West Beziehungen

Anmerkung:: Untertitel fingiert. - Das Paper wurde verfasst anlässlich der sog. Ost-West-Konferenz: New Economic Relations beween East and West - Conference of the Kreisky Commission and the Swedish Embassy in Vienna, May 17-18, 1990. (Unveröffentlichtes Werk)

Thema:: Wirtschaftspolitik

JEL Klassifikation:: P26 [Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Political Economy, Property Rights] P27 [Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects]

Signatur:: S/M.35.23

Nutzungsrechte:: Rechte vorbehalten

Zugriff:: Freier Zugriff

THE SUDDEN CONTACT BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE WORLDS The problem of the transformation of the socialist economies into a different system is in its historical reality mixed up with a different problem which arises when two very different worlds touch after they have been separated for a long time. The two problems are certainly very closely linked - you may say that the transformation is achieved not the least by means of the contact yet the problems have to be separated when we analyse them.The difference of the two worlds - call them East Country and West Country - concerns many things but we shall in the first place consider the large gap in productivity and in real wages. Let us consider two scenarios. First. If there is scarcity of labour (or at least of skilled labour) in the "West" then the industry there will have an incentive to move production - additional production at any rate - to the East. The western firms may have other motives too: thus they will probably engage in a race , each wants to be the first even if it is only to prevent the others to be there and not so much to engage himself. I do not mention the motive of low wages because it is by no means clear whether the efficiency wage is or will be in the near future, a low one. The firms moving in from the West will bring with them better management and organisation and better technology (partly embodied in equipment) and they will tend to drive up wages somewhat in relation to the autochtonous industries. In the course of a fairly long series of years productivity and real wages may gradually approach the level of the West.In this scenario the East bears a certain qualified ressemblance to the NICs (newly industrial countries). Second. This scenario is dominated by the fact that industry in the East is not able unprotected to withstand the competition from the West and that it will therefore for the greater part close its doors and dismiss its employees. Production, in a word, will be shifted from the East to the West (especially easily if the skilled labour moves with it, and thus completes the ruin in the East). With mass unemployment and low demand the East will not be attractive to foreign investors and will therefore be condemned to stagnation. This must also destroy the long term chances which the Western industry might have had under different conditions, i.e. with prosperity and full employment in the East. This scenario may be called Colonisation of the East. We have to think of historical comparisons such as the Italian Unity created in the 19th century which left Italy split into two regions with a vast economic difference which has not disappeared to this day with all its appalling consequences. Which of the two scenarios is more applicable or relevant to the prospective development of the various socialist economies I shall not try to guess. I

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