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in the old industries. If it is not, the displacement occurs
and starts a downward spiral.
The post-war history of European countries shows an interesting
contrast:
In the first period there was a large displacement of labour
in agriculture and other industries in connection with
strong productivity increases there. This labour was
absorbed as soon as it become available by growing industries:
The growth was based on the import of american technology -
a cathing up process- and of american consumption patterns.
The pull was stronger than the push.
More recently,the opposite is the case: The basic industries,
steel, heavy chemicals etc as well as some saturated
or mature consumers goods industries (cars ) have redundant
labour and there are no or not sufficient industries
to absorb them. The push is there but not the pull.
No doubt the situation is made more difficult by the
fact that while in the former case the displacing industry -
agriculture - was a low wage industry the basic industries
which are now displacing labour are privileged in wage and
fringe benefits. This in practice is even more important
tnan the question of location which hardly impeded the
shift from agriculture.
The two cases correspond roughly to the two patterns of
technical progress which we find in Marx: One, adaptive,
which is induced by scarcity of labour. The other, autonomous,
proceeds in the absence of new absorbing industries.
Technical progress can act quite as viciously as Marx and
the late Ricardo argued, but it all depends on the dynamic
charachter of the economy.