Full text: Trend - Problems

It is assumed that a given trend tends to perpetuate itself 
if certain favorable conditions are given. In my 
case it is implicit that these favorable conditions consist 
in the ■-•working of the competitive process by which 
an acceptable utilisation rate as well as a somehow normal 
profit margin is restored. 
Another weakness of the book lies in its assumptions about 
long term memory and long term perspectives. It is assumed 
that moving averages taken over the trade cycle are 
relevant for the entrepreneurs long term decisions. 
This is in particular true for the utilisation of capacity; 
its"long term value"is supposed to influence the decisions. 
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There remains something vague and unsatisfactory about it. 
A further shortcoming: The competitive pressure was 
(wrongly,in most cases probably) supposed to come from 
big firms who were supposed to be technologically progressive 
and who accumulated excess profits for which they were 
trying to find profitable employment in an expansion of 
capacity at the expense of smaller firms. In reality it 
is much more plausible that the competitive pressure 
emanates from new entrants in the particular industry 
( although these may be,capitalists who have accumulated 
profits in other lines of business ) and that it is these 
newcomers who are technologically progressive. k(S K ^

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