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Trend - Problems
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Kalecki ’ s remarks on the trend are rather sketchy as compared^A^.,
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with his elaborate theory of the cycle. In his first version
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of the trade cycle he excluded the trend altogether by *1 ,^1^1
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the assumption of a "pure cycle" which revolves round '£(>«?* Lr* ' '
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a constant replacement demand ( replacement and depreciation.
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are assumed to be equal ). In the sense of a long terra , ,
movement there is a trend also in this version - it is the
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constant replacement demand which is the feature of a mjgir'
stationary economy. The question which puzzles the reader ijr.^etnP
What forces the investment to come down again to where
started from? We can hardly assume that the investors
thermselves aim at the stationary state, because that
results only as an average and because the stationarity
is all against the experience fo capitalist attitudes.
The explicit treatment of the trend in later versions
of K's theory combines two statements:
a) A positive trend will only be generated by a continuing
exogenous influence that is, if we exclude the influence of
public spending and of export surplusses, by continuing
technological change (in a fairly wide sense -organisation e: ■;
which keeps promising extra profits to the innovator.
b) the exogenous influence is combined with endogenous elements
and it is the two in their mutual and combined interaction
which produces the trend.Kalecki speaks of a "semi-autonomous
trend". The endogenous element corresponds to a long term
memory.that is to the evol ution of the economy in the past
( the past extend farther back then just one or two years -
perhaps even over the length of a whole trade cycle).
These indications constitute a research program,
but very little work if any has been done on it yet by anybody.