6
in form of residential housing have been subjected to a critical
analysis which makes them appear in a new light.
Tibor Scitovsky showed that to a very large extent the reduction
in the personal saving ratio in the 70s was due to its being
calculated net, and to the very high capital consumption
allowances for dwelling houses which are used in calculating it
and which increased to an extraordinary extent in the late 70s
owing to the inflation in housing prices(Scitovsky 1986). This
kind of reckoning, Scitovsky argues, is unrealistic because it
does not take account of the fact that house owners owing to the
considerable increase in the value of their property can realise
capital gains which make it unnecessary for them to provide for
replacement. If the personal saving is calculated on a gross
basis,then, as Scitovsky shows, the decline since 1977 is rather
smaller than the decline of the net saving ratio given by NIPA.
(The gross rate is also better suited for international
comparisons in most cases). There is,however,still a decline,that
is, also the gross rate is lower than it was in the early 70s.
Professor Scitovsky's calculation extend only to 1979;I have made
a very rough calculation for the years 1980 to 1987 by adding the
capital consumption allowance with adjustment for owner occupied
non-farm houses to the personal saving (Table 6).The discrepancy
between gross and net saving rate did not increase any further
since 1980 but if we add to the grosss saving ratios the
correction of about 2 to 2.5 p.c.mentioned further above it
appears that the dramatic decline of the saving rate becomes a
rather less impressive experience.We may still ask ourselves
whether the decline in net saving which still remains after the
corrections is not due to an increased inclination of households
to indebt themselves . To get a measure of households'