greater part of her income from it. On the way to this ultimate
aim the country will probably run into depressions.
Naturally an import surplus will represent just the opposite of
the above case. It will provide contraction in the short run
which,if it is.-'to be stopped, will have to be contered by an
export surplus which will increase effective demand. /
4. Another parallel case is consumers credit and mortgages. In the
aftermath of its expansion of consumption there remains the burden
of service of the debt which reduces disposable income.
Another case concerns a hausse in asset prices, for example,
land which is created by additional spending of the developing
agents and speculators. The speculative gains may be, even if only
in part, spent on consumption, but later on the house owners will
have to pay increased rents which diminishes their spending power.
While all the above methods of increasing effective
demand lead to a backlash this is not true for the method of
changing the propensity to consume by changing the distribution of
income in favour of low savers. If this is at the expense of
profits the strategy may not be successful in so far as it could
affect investment.But there are other groups of high savers which
might be targeted,such as managers and professional people, and
above all, the rentiers.A cheap money policy is primarily
indicated if one wants to exert a lasting influence on effective
demand.
The negative aftereffects implied by budget deficits, export
surplus or consumers credit will take quite a time until they work
up to the point at which they call urgently for counteraction. It
is therefore not implied here that such ways of creating effective
demand can or should not be used . After a time, however, their