6
(expectation of extra profit) from such transfers became
gradually weaker.
2. The tendency to underutilization of capacity seems to
have been present long before the apparent break in the
trend in 1974/75. This tendency preceded each of the
recessions (1958, 1967, 1974) and it was felt in the early
1970'ies in several countries in steel, synthetic fibres,
fertilisers, textiles; only more recently in motor cars.
I feel that the role of utilization as a determinant of
investment can hardly be exaggerated. A growing fear of
excess capacity might be the most general reason for the
gradual weaking of investment.
3. The opening of the system by liberalisation of trade
necessitated in formerly heavily protected industries a
process of structural adjustment which some countries have
found it difficult to carry out satisfactorily. The un
adjusted industries tend to be subsidised in one form or
another.
At the same time countries with chronic balance of payment
deficits found it increasingly necessary to grant tax
relief to their industries to enable them to compete abroad.
This strategy has been applied even where it could not
be justified by the state of the foreign balance.