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9
The restauration of a normal u may come about by an increase
in effective demand - by a shift to wages which is the same
as a shift to consumption - or elsi-it may come about by
a reduction in productive capacity. In the former case
there will be an increase in the multiplier: The reduction
in the growth rate will thus imply a structural change in favor
of consumption at the cost of investment.
The alternative form of adjustment, the elimination of capacity,
will to some extent be inevitable, if we assume that firms
have very different cost and some are at the margin of
existence and profitability. They will be pushed out
mostly on account of very high break-even points. The
solution by way of capacity elimination will also be inevitable
if there are special structural problems owing to technica_l
change. But the expansion of demand can in principle also
play a role in the reestablishment of normal capacity. In
my book I relied only on the reduction in capacity because
I started from a micro-economic analysis of a single industry.
Now my message was of course that this adjustment to
a reduction in growth does not work in our modern economy
and has not worked already for a long time, because cut
throat competition among giant firms is exceedingly dangerous
and costly. The elimination of excess capacity by competition
does not work. In consequence there arises a downward
cumulative process based on the fact that the reduction in
utilisation affects adversely investment. In this way
a continuing decline of accumulation may well be explained.
If in fact it stretches out over many decades one may however,
well ask how it could take so long: One would have expected it
to proceed rather more quickly. It would seem, intuitively,
that there must have been counteracting forces acting as a
brake on the decline.