5
Based on the assumption that unemployment and reduced growth
of demand must dampen the progress of productivity, we can
now analyse the course of wages and wage cost.
First, the data Table I.A, I.B and II.A show the course of
productivity growth. The reduction in the growth rates is
largest in Japan and England, in the case of output per man
also in Italy and Austria. These are the countries where the
jobs were most protected (redundancy was greatest).
Now what are the net effects of the unemployment ? There are
two counteracting factors, the reduction in real wage target
(the realised target!) and the reduction in productivity
growth. Which way the balance of the two turns depends on
circumstances, it is different in different countries.
As mentioned before there is a transmission mechanism by
which wages are transformed into prices. This is complicated
in so far as imports, materials and taxes come into it, since
they may not rise in the same proportion. We shall, however,
consider specially the effect of productivity.
It is generally taken for granted that a real wage increase
which corresponds to the growth of productivity will be non
inflationary. But what happens if the growth rate of productivity
declines (turns out afterwards to be lower?). The real wage