6
will then be lower than expected, and if the target is
unchanged the nominell wage demanded in the next round will
be growing more than before. It seems to me that in principle
(i.e. if materials etc rise in proportion to wages) this
effect must cumulate over successive rounds of wage
negotiations.
Let us look at the data of ILB + II.C. The real wage growth
has everywhere gone back under the influence of unemployment;
Evidently real wage targets have been reduced. In spite of
this the growth of money wages has almost every where
accelerated. The reason is that in the transmission of wages
into prices various influences have come in which prevented
a price increase in proportion to the wage increase. These
were mainly the two oil shocks and the decline in productivity
growth.
As long as this corresponded to the increase in money wages,
as for example in the U.S. in 1961—67 (Table II.A, II.B, II.D),
there was no reason for accelerated inflation, while since
then there has been such an effect in spite of reduced real
wage targets.
The inflation stimulus will be larger if industry tries to
shift also the fixed cost elements.