6
Even partial information in this field, bringing us a few
steps further, would be, howeber, exceedingly valuable
and worth a lot of trouble.
Something might now be said on the three post-war periods
which Keynes anticipated. The second period faded out
gradually already in the course of the 60s. In its earlier
part it was strongly influenced by the catching up process
in Europe. The continent of Europe had been cut off from
American technological development for many years; a reserve
of know how had thus accumulated which became available after
the war, aided also by Marshall plan and technical assistence;
it had a strong influence onthe scale of investment and growht
of productivity on the continent.Drawing on available know
how is infinitely more easy than creating new one and
the effects on investment are strong. We can not say exactly
when these effects were exhausted, but their gradual
disappearance must have contributed to the ending of the
second period. The flagging of the animal spirits was
a motive for increasing tax allowances, illustrated by the
decrease in profit taxes in various countreis such as
Britain and the U.S.
The basic reason for the ending of period two, as Keynes said,
was the accumulation of capacity and decline of utilisation,
helped perhaps also by the accumulation of excess depreciation
although this was counteracted by inflation.
empirical
These considerations suggest a fairly wide field of /study
/
on investment, depreciation, capital stock, capacity and
utilisation. In an interesting study of the ECE (Geneva ) *
« UlN EC£ : EC.AD/5EM.^,2, 12Joy ifS?,