10
Imports can loosen the constraint but this will be temporary
even if equipment is imported.
Also a budget surplus may make it possible for the growth
rate to rise above the limits detailed just now. This surplus
will automatically tend to appear with a high growth rate, but
it may be counteracted by a parallel movement of increased
public investment and spending for social services, tendencies
which are only too natural in a growing system.
In most industrial countries the output capacity of the
equipment is not the bottleneck; the manpower is usually the
narrower constraint. For this reason the high post-war growth
rate was dependent on the supply of additional manpower from
agriculture, from the households and from abroad. (The
hunger for additional manpower shows that capacity was not the
bottleneck).
On the basis of preceding considerations we might picture the
high growth era of the 50'ies and 60'ies as follows. On the
basis of investment and exports there was full employment with
high growth and utilization. The bottlenecks prevented the
booming economy from creating excess demand and a profit
inflation. At the same time the tendency to increase in profit
margins in innovating and in export firms was checked by the
action of wage drift, which kept up consumers demand and