5 
though the trend is in principle due to the stimulus of 
technological change, and its course is heavily influenced 
by it. 
This leaves wide open to judgement the question how far the 
actual long term developments are to be explained in an 
endogenous way (for example, on the pattern of Maturity and 
Stagnation) or by technology. The second alternative has 
recently got much succour by Christopher Freeman's ideas on 
1) 
long waves. In spite of the great interest and relevance 
of Freeman's ideas I do not believe that either the 1930'ies 
or the recent developments since 1973 can be explained in these 
terms (on the face of it it seems paradoxical that with the 
actual stagnation of productivity technical displacement 
should be blamed for the unemployment). 
This leads me naturally to my own ideas on stagnation which 
have a lot to do with distribution. I want to deal now with 
distribution and long run development. 
1) Ch. Freeman, John Clark, Lue Soete: Unemployment and 
technical innovation. A study of long waves and technical 
development. Francis Pinter, London 1982.