Stagnation.
As far as modern experience is concerned stagnation
is linked to the decade of the 1930s when accumulation
in the U.S. practically ceased. The concept of stagnation
as the inevitable fate of capitalism, however, is as old
as classical economics, only its motivation has not always
been the same. The source or inspiration of the idea may
be traced to various lines of thought. They are, first,
historical: It is known that a number of civilisations
stagnated, decayed and perished. Some philosophers,
among them Oswald Spengler ( 1923) believed in a general
pattern of creative phase followed by decadence in all
civilisations. The knowledge that, in the past, civilisations
the speculation about
have decayed must have had an influence on/uhe future
of our society. The second source is biological: In
analogy to the organic world societies are seen to age.
Growth is followed by stagnation and finally decay. This
underlies the term maturity (Hansen 1938) used for a
society which has reached the end of its growth phase.
There are two different interpretations of the process of
aging. One refers to the gradual exhaustion of natural
resources. This covers the ideas of the classics
who anticipated a scarcity of land in relation to the
growing population as well as the modern ideas about the
limits of growth determined by the exhaustion of fossile
resources of energy or of the healthy environment.