13
Moreover, these series of historically successive techniques
are also the ones which can be regarded as being simultaneously
available to a prospective investor in the field. Whether we
find in the range of these available methods all three stages
(increasing, constant and diminishing returns) represented
cannot be ascertained with confidence. It appears likely,
however, that the economist's conviction about the importance
of diminishing returns rests on prejudice, and that we hardly
ever enter the range of diminishing returns, or of increasing
capital-output ratios.
It is conceivable that the relation of profit margin and
profit rate expounded in Chapter III at least partly explains
why this should be so: If the capital-output ratio is in
creased, the profit margin must increase, else the method
would be rejected because of the implied decline in profit
rate. As the profit margin increases, a further increase in
capital-output ratio is less likely to yield a constant profit
rate. Thus the increase in capital coefficient would tend to
set limits for itself sooner or later. Whether this is in
fact the explanation of the apparent constancy of capital-
output ratios in history, or their decline with size and
advancedness of technique (in a cross section), and the limited
range of capital-output ratios in manufacturing, cannot be
decided with confidence.