3
Stagnation then and now
Morishima in recent works has stressed that economic theory
cannot be the same for every country nor for different periods
in one and the same country. This applies also to stagnation
theory. My stagnation theory was to explain the secular
decline of growth from the 19th century to the depression of the
1930s in the U.S. This country was chosen because it
seemed to me an easier subject for study than European countries
- more of a closed and private economy than they were and
less complicated by feudal past and imperialism. I was,
however, inspired by a belief that behind the differences of
individual countries a common pattern of development of
accumulation in capitalism existed, and that a study of a
comparatively simple case might reveal something of it.
Econonomists in general were not much interested in my
ideas because at the time of their publication conditions had
moved far away from stagnation. The rate of accumulation
and of employment was high. Later interest began to increase
in some circles and after 1975 I was sometimes commended for
having shown foresight. This made me smile because on the one
hand I did not think that the experience of post-war prosperity
necessarily disproved my ideas, on the other hand I did not
think that these ideas were directly applicable to the new
problems. I spoke of stagnation policy then, in contrast to
stagnation theory.
I shall deal in my paper with three problems:
1) The old problem of the maturing of the American economy
from the 19th century to the great depression.
2) The explanation of the exceptionally high accumulation and
employment of the prosperous post-war decades and how they
can be reconciled with maturity of the American economy.