Full text: Trend - Problems

Bis dilemma. The most radicaL ONE WOULD be that the cycle 
is created not by the instability of fixed capital investment 
but by that of the inventory accumulation. This has been 
the path choosen by Goodwin in his paper The Trend and the 
Cycle (Goodwin 1982 p,1l6 ) Where he bases himself on 
empirical work by Abramovitz which showed the great extent 
of fluctualtons in inve ntory accumulation. Of course, 
Goodwin cannot fail to recognise big fluctuations in fixed 
investment, but he regards these as induced by the inventory 
accumulation. 
Goodwin's paper has led me to the following idea: 
It is reasonable to think that much of fixed invesetment 
is planned, projected and prepared with a long run perspective 
cy.te independently of the cyclical conditions. It is only 
the timing of the ultimate realisation of the project which 
is (in many cases at le§.st) synchronised with the cycle: 
The investment projects are not necessarily planned with a view 
to immediate realisation, but they may be kept in store 
for some time, and the time when they are taken out and 
realised is often the beginning recovery, when the atmosphere 
prevailing 
of-optimism infects the planner and overcomes his hesitations. 
Hisbehaviour will be rational if there are complementary 
developments of other firms which help his own project. 
In part it is irrational, because there are disadvantages 
in the hectic conditions of a boom. The assumption is, however, 
that the element of imitation or stimulus of general attitudes 
pl$36 a very strong role in social behaviour.
	        

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