Full text: Trend and Cycle

Bis dilemma. The most radical WOULD be that the cycle 
is created not by the instability of fixed capital investment 
but by that of the inventory accumulation. This has been 
the path choosen by Goodwin in his paper The Trend and the 
, N to- 
Cycle (Goodwin 1982 pj 16 ) /Where he b4se-s himself -on _ 
empirical work by Abramovitz which showed the great extent 
of fluctualtons in inve ntory accumulation. Of course, 
Goodwin cannot fail to recognise .big. fluctuations in fixed 
tw {Ztorf/*' owl? 
investment, but he regards these as induced by the inventory 
accumulation. 
Goodwin's paper has led me to the following idea: 
It is reasonable to think that much of fixed invesetment 
is planned, projected and prepared with a long run perspective 
^ . 
•v q.ite independently of the cyclical conditions. It is only 
the timing of the ultimate ralisation of the project which 
<iuy ^ 1 
is (in many cases at le-ist) synchronised with the cycle: 
VA't 
The investment projects are not necessarily planned with a view 
to immediate realisation, but they may be kept in store 
for some time, and the time when they are taken out and 
realised is often the beginning recovery, when the atmosphere 
prevailing 
of-optimism infects the planner and overcomes his hesitations 
. X C'ila.-fc 
(Hisbehaviour wi±3r-ire rational if ther 
e are complementary 
v v 
i 
developments of other firms which help his own project, 
t hLaa 
f In paaci^it is irrational, because there are disadvantages 
v, fri n ft*** « I 
in the hectic conditions of a boom,. The assuapti-an—is, however, 
b A *) j ir Yl / 
that the element of imitation or stimulus of general attitudes 
plg^s a very strong role in social behaviour. 
* z*^^ 7 
il ^ 
JL 
7Z, ^ 
1 tct’G 
<VWu. 
J V bt- (tjLxj 
%
	        

Note to user

Dear user,

In response to current developments in the web technology used by the Goobi viewer, the software no longer supports your browser.

Please use one of the following browsers to display this page correctly.

Thank you.